Top Ten Candidates for the Democratic Nomination – Post New Hampshire Winnowing

We’ve had the Iowa Caucus debacle and the New Hampshire primary, so I think it’s time to update my ranking.  Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett dropped out (although Bennett hasn’t been in my ranking for a long time).  Biden is on life support and Warren looks to be done.  Bernie is the frontrunner, while Pete and Amy are vying to be the main moderate alternative.  And Bloomberg is waiting in the wings.  What to do, what to do?

  1. Elizabeth Warren – Staying steady.  I think there’s a chance that Warren doesn’t make it to South Carolina.  She’s probably running out of money and, if she doesn’t pull out a huge surprise in Nevada, I suspect she’ll drop out while she still has some support left.  From the clips of her speech last night, I suspect if she endorses, she might be going for Klobuchar.  She probably won’t endorse, but I’m guessing the Bernie supporters online have soured her and her campaign on an endorsement of Bernie (even though they’re closer in policy ideas).  I could probably write a whole piece on the reasons why she has fallen.  I suspect her supporters overlapped with Bernie (policy), Pete (college educated white voters) and Amy (women) and, since those 3 surged, the votes had to come from somewhere.  I will keep Warren at number one on my ranking until she officially drops out, but I suspect it’s gonna happen sooner rather than later.
  2. Amy Klobuchar – Staying steady.  I’ve said from very early on that, all things considered, I prefer a woman at the top of the ticket.  I suspect Amy is still more of a VP prospect than someone who gets the top spot.  Still, she’s in the middle of a surge and represents a good counter point to Bernie’s revolution.  Nevada is going to tell the tale for the moderate lane.  I think she’s in good shape now to make it to Super Tuesday.  Then, let’s see.  If she doesn’t get the nomination, it’s looking tough for her to get on the ticket.  She and Pete don’t get along.  Biden is toast.  If Bloomberg somehow wins, she might be a good fit for his ticket.  She’s not a fit for Bernie.  And those seem to be the options at this point.
  3. Pete Buttigieg – up 1 spot.  He shared the win in Iowa and came close in New Hampshire.  He’s been competitive in Trump areas, so he has a good theory of the case for how he is going to appeal to independents.  I like the youth and I think he can generate some enthusiasm.  Pick the right VP and that’s a strong ticket.
  4. Bernie Sanders –  up six spots.  Bernie is the frontrunner.  He can generate enthusiasm.  There are polls that show him beating Trump.  He’s got just terrible, horrible, no good, very bad supporters online.  Not all of them, but there are some terrible folks out there.  I like many of his ideas.  The reason he’s down here is because of his supporters.  And his age and the socialist label.  I still say the Trumpies have laid off him because he’s their preferred opponent.  They will go after the socialist thing and I’m afraid it’s going to stick.  Still, with a good VP pick, he can rally the base.  Maybe some of the terrible people online would vote for Trump or sit out if not for Bernie?  So, not my first choice, but I’m gonna vote for him if he’s the nominee.
  5. Joe Biden – down two spots.  He’s toast.  Maybe he stays in til South Carolina, but he’s kind of in the same boat as Warren.
  6. Michael Bloomberg – staying steady.  I’m not a fan of the billionaire buying the nomination thing.  Once he’s on the debate stage and some of his Republican policies come to light, I don’t think he can win.  Still, I’ll vote for him over Trump.  And he’s on here in this spot, because there are no other viable candidates after him.
  7. Tom Steyer – staying steady. Another billionaire.  Maybe better than Bloomberg, but not viable.
  8. Michelle Obama – staying steady.  Just because.
  9. Stacey Abrams – staying steady.  Because she’s a great option for VP.
  10. MadDog, Esq.  I’m up for election locally.  Besides the top 6 or so here, I’m as likely to write myself in and vote for anyone else.

My College Basketball Top 25 – Race for the SEC Edition

I’ll put my rankings below, but here’s my thoughts on the SEC.  Right now, I think the SEC gets 5 in the tourney – Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, Florida, and Mississippi State.  Three are tied in first place – UK, Auburn, and LSU.  Auburn’s schedule is the easiest.  LSU has UK at home, but some other losable games.  The Cats have Florida and LSU on the road and Auburn at home.  If anyone goes 7-1 down the stretch, they’re the SEC regular season champ.

  1. Gonzaga (25-1)
  2. Baylor (21-1)
  3. San Diego State (24-0)
  4. Duke (20-3)
  5. Kansas (20-3)
  6. Louisville (21-3)
  7. Auburn (21-2)
  8. Dayton (21-2)
  9. Florida State (20-3)
  10. Maryland (19-4)
  11. Kentucky (18-5)
  12. Seton Hall (18-5)
  13. Oregon (18-6)
  14. West Virginia (18-5)
  15. Penn State (18-5)
  16. Michigan State (16-8)
  17. Colorado (19-5)
  18. Villanova (17-6)
  19. LSU (17-6)
  20. Butler (18-6)
  21. Wichita State (17-5)
  22. Houston (18-5)
  23. Creighton (18-6)
  24. Iowa (17-7)
  25. Vermont (19-6)

Watching The Debate So You Don’t Have To – New Hampshire Edition

There were only six people on the stage in the pre-Iowa debate.  Seven tonight, so Andrew Yang back on the stage.  

The dynamic was different tonight because the pecking order has changed.  Bernie and Biden are at the top of the pack and Pete got a lot of attention as well.  For the first time in any of the debates that I can remember, Bernie was the focus of attacks.  Warren had been the focus in the past, but she’s faded.

I think it would be good if the next debates were with 4 candidates (maybe 5 with Bloomberg).  Steyer and Yang should probably be done.  Maybe the higher polling threshold for the next debate will get us the 5 candidates.  Also might be less if someone drops out after a disappointing showing in New Hampshire.

The format was OK and they at least let some cross talk go on and a little bit of debate happen.  Steyer was the most aggressive jumping in over top of people.

There was no opening or closing statement segment.  The first question got everybody involved in a question of Sanders’ electability.  It was the first sign that Sanders would be the target of some attacks.  He is consistent in falling back on his standard rhetoric.  None of the attacks were fatal, but he was put on the defensive a little bit.  Bernie was also attacked on guns and it harmed him a bit.

The closing segment was the same question for everyone – what to do about child poverty.  Most of the candidates pivoted from the question to transition to a version of their stump speech.  Warren and Yang were the most effective at actually answering the question and saying something about making things better for kids in poverty.

I did a little bit of the good answer thing again this time.  Steyer had one, Yang had one, Warren had one, and Klobuchar had one.  I also noted that Steyer had one entirely confusing section.

On to the ranking:

  1. Amy Klobuchar – Good debate for Amy.  She got in some attacks on Bernie and Pete and also didn’t hit the moderate stuff too often.  Now that we’re looking at Bernie at the top of the heap, I think I may be looking at arguments a little differently.  I might be drawn to a more moderate stance because I worry about Bernie as the nominee.  Amy is the best moderate for me.
  2. Elizabeth Warren – Now that Cory Booker is out, Warren is the best overall debater and has been consistently good in all of the debates.  She’s fallen in the polls, I think, because of the rise of Bernie.  Now that she’s down middle of the pack, she doesn’t get attacked, so she can just do her thing and hammer on corruption and extol the virtues of the 2 cent wealth tax.
  3. Pete Buttigieg – I’m probably pulling for Pete to win in New Hampshire because it forestalls the Bernie juggernaut.  He had a really good answer on the Commander in Chief question.
  4. Joe Biden – Joe didn’t have the problem he’s had in previous debates of rambling answers.  Nothing exceptional, but no stumbles.
  5. Bernie Sanders – He lost his footing a bit in some of the segments where he was the focus of attacks, but he kept solid on his standard stump speech.
  6. Tom Steyer – Tom had one really good answer and one super confusing answer.  He was more aggressive, but that’s probably a net negative for him.
  7. Andrew Yang – I like Yang better than some of the others on this list above him, but he really didn’t make an impact for me.

My College Basketball Top 25 – Super Bowl Edition

I stayed up watching the Super Bowl, so I didn’t get my Top 25 posted last night.  I’m gonna get it out there quick before the new AP Top 25 hits, so here you go:

  1. Gonzaga (23-1)
  2. Baylor (19-1)
  3. San Diego State (23-0)
  4. Duke (18-3)
  5. Kansas (18-3)
  6. Louisville (19-3)
  7. Auburn (19-2)
  8. Dayton (20-2)
  9. LSU (17-4)
  10. Florida State (18-3)
  11. Oregon (18-5)
  12. West Virginia (17-4)
  13. Maryland (17-4)
  14. Kentucky (16-5)
  15. Michigan State (16-6)
  16. Villanova (17-4)
  17. Penn State (16-5)
  18. Colorado (17-5)
  19. Arkansas (16-5)
  20. Butler (17-5)
  21. Wichita State (17-4)
  22. Seton Hall (16-5)
  23. Iowa (16-6)
  24. Illinois (16-6)
  25. Creighton (17-5)

New Year’s Resolution – January

I didn’t bother to write about my resolution for this year in advance.  They’re pretty common around January 1.  Now that I’ve made it through the month (about 36 hours to go), I figure it’s a good time to take stock.

Here’s what I resolved for January 2020:

IMG_4645.jpeg

And, for clarification, that meant that I would drink only water, not that I was going to try and drink a certain number of ounces a day.  Just, no sodas (diet or otherwise), no milk, no tea, no coffee.

No meat for me was just the same as the time I did 5 years as a vegetarian.  No land based meat.  And not vegan.  So eggs/cheese = OK.  I’ll also eat the occasional Tuna Salad sandwich.  Just no chicken, beef, pork and the like.

No sugar meant no sweets.  No candy, no cookies, no ice cream.  Also no fruit, although I usually only eat fruit in smoothies anyway, which was ruled out with the rule on drinking water.  Muffins, pastries are all out.

So, with 36 hours to go, I think I can call this one a success.  I had to take a sip of a diet coke to keep it from spilling, but, other than that, I’ve only had water to drink the entire month.

And last night, I was eating what was supposed to be just dumplings from Cracker Barrel.  Turns out there were some stray pieces of chicken in there.  I was watching bastketball at the time, so one piece of chicken was consumed.  I left the other two alone.  That’s the only meat I’ve eaten all month.  BTW, the Impossible Whoppers are good.  I didn’t care for the Beyond Meat sausage at Hardee’s.  Morningstar products veggie sausage and veggie burgers are still as good as ever.

No backsliding on the sweets, either.  I found that I did a lot of snacking with chips and dip.  I wasn’t trying to be super stringent about “no sugar added” or anything like that.  It’s my game, so my rules.

We’ve got a cheer competition in Nashville on Saturday, February 1 and then the Super Bowl this Sunday.  I’ve decided I’m going to throw all the rules out for the weekend and come back on Monday for another month’s resolution.  I’m thinking about eliminating or curtailing fast food.  I also might try and do fruit this month and have a daily smoothie.  I’m not sure what to do about meat and sodas.

Oh, and, BTW, I lost 8 pounds.

Top Ten Candidates for the Democratic Nomination (It’s really a Top 8) – Plus January Political Donations

I see I haven’t updated my ranking since the end of last year.  Other politics have been more pressing I guess.  But the deadline for January donations is approaching and the Iowa Caucus is coming up.  Plus, I feel like I have some things to say about the state of the horserace.  Better here than arguing with someone on Facebook.

  1. Elizabeth Warren – Staying steady.  No change here.  We’ll see if her organization in Iowa can surprise and get her a top two finish there.  It seems the recent Bernie surge has come at her expense.  Guess there really is a progressive lane.  I had heard theories that Warren was fighting with Pete for college educated white voters, but the fall recently seems to correspond exactly to Bernie’s gain.  Between Warren and Sanders, Warren is the much better choice.
  2. Amy Klobuchar – Staying steady.  Now word of an alliance with Biden.  I’m still hoping for a woman at the top of the ticket and I don’t see Biden as Klobuchar’s VP.
  3. Joe Biden – up two spots.  In the race between two septuagenarian white guys, Biden is a better choice than Sanders (seeing a theme here?).  He needs a woman and someone young on the ticket.  Klobuchar is fine, but how about Kamala or Stacey Abrams?
  4. Pete Buttigieg – down 1 spot.  After he spent his time at the top of the Iowa polling, Pete has come down to earth.  If he doesn’t win Iowa, does he have a chance?  I wonder why he’s not trying to get into the alliance with the other moderates?
  5. Andrew Yang – up one spot.  He’s back on the debate stage for New Hampshire. I like what he adds to the discussion.  A great addition to a Warren administration.  What about an alliance with Elizabeth, Andrew?
  6. Michael Bloomberg – up two spots.  I saw some I Like Mike buttons at a Democratic event tonight.  He’s got some following here in Tennessee.  It’s his Super Tuesday strategy in action.  He came to a Democratic get together in Knoxville when he was in town to open his office.  I think there’s a chance he gets some delegates out of Tennessee.
  7. Tom Steyer – up 3 spots.  He’s now the climate change guy, which isn’t a bad thing to be.  How about an alliance with Elizabeth, Tom?
  8. Michelle Obama.  Just because.
  9. Stacey Abrams.  Because she’s a great option for VP.
  10. Bernie Sanders –  down three spots.  Yeah, I put him last for a reason.  I’m a little disgruntled with the Sanders supporters on Twitter and FB.  They’ve gone hard after Warren.  And I wonder how many of the negative things I’m seeing are bots or other disinformative types.  But his supporters give me pause.  There’s a reason Trump goes after everyone but Bernie.  Trump wants to run against Bernie.  Rs will call Ds socialists. It’s what they do.  But it’ll stick with Bernie.  He might still beat Trump because he does have a hard core, dedicated base of support.  The problem is also that his base views the Democratic Party the same way Republicans do. Until a different system comes along (ranked choice?), it’s a binary option.  Bernie is trying to be a third option in Democratic Party clothing.  I’m afraid we’re damned either way it plays out.  Bernie is leading and is going to get delegates.  If he doesn’t get the nomination, no amount of logic or reason will convince his supporters that he wasn’t cheated by the Democratic establishment somehow.  Or he gets the nomination and we have to fight an election with his baggage.  But a President Sanders is better than a President Trump.  So, I’ll vote blue, no matter who.

Now, on to my political donations this month.  Earlier in the month, I made another $500 donation to my campaign.  You can read about my financial disclosure here.

I’m also going to spread my donations out.  $5 each to Elizabeth Warren (of course), the Knox County Democratic Party, and my fellow candidates going for the WIN on the Knox County Commission – Courtney Durrett (District 2) and Kimberly Peterson (District 5).

My College Basketball Top 25 – Home, Sick Edition

The MadDoc is recuperating from some surgery and I’m battling a cold.  Trying to get over it enough to handle the campaign events coming up this week.  Can’t be sniffling when you’re recording a TV spot, can you?  But, I’ve got a little time to kill this evening in between some campaign prep work, so let’s talk a little college basketball.

It’s been a crazy year and I think there are no certain Final Four contenders.  Or, to put it another way, if my top 4 from last week (and this week) were the #1 seeds this year, do they really scare your preferred team?  Probably not.  From the perspective of a Wildcats fan, I think we can beat anybody and also get upset by more teams than I would like.  There are 20 or 30 teams that could get on a roll and win 4 to get to the Final Four.

That said, here’s where I rank them now:

  1. Gonzaga (21-1)
  2. Baylor (17-1)
  3. San Diego State (21-0)
  4. Florida State (17-2)
  5. Oregon (17-4)
  6. Duke (16-3)
  7. Kansas (16-3)
  8. Kentucky (15-4)
  9. Louisville (17-3)
  10. West Virginia (16-3)
  11. Dayton (18-2)
  12. Auburn (17-2)
  13. Maryland (16-4)
  14. Michigan State (15-5)
  15. Villanova (16-3)
  16. LSU (15-4)
  17. Penn State (14-5)
  18. Colorado (16-4)
  19. Arkansas (15-4)
  20. Butler (16-4)
  21. Wichita State (17-3)
  22. Seton Hall (15-4)
  23. Iowa (14-5)
  24. Illinois (15-5)
  25. Rutgers (15-5)