Top Ten Candidates for the Democratic Nomination – Post New Hampshire Winnowing

We’ve had the Iowa Caucus debacle and the New Hampshire primary, so I think it’s time to update my ranking.  Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett dropped out (although Bennett hasn’t been in my ranking for a long time).  Biden is on life support and Warren looks to be done.  Bernie is the frontrunner, while Pete and Amy are vying to be the main moderate alternative.  And Bloomberg is waiting in the wings.  What to do, what to do?

  1. Elizabeth Warren – Staying steady.  I think there’s a chance that Warren doesn’t make it to South Carolina.  She’s probably running out of money and, if she doesn’t pull out a huge surprise in Nevada, I suspect she’ll drop out while she still has some support left.  From the clips of her speech last night, I suspect if she endorses, she might be going for Klobuchar.  She probably won’t endorse, but I’m guessing the Bernie supporters online have soured her and her campaign on an endorsement of Bernie (even though they’re closer in policy ideas).  I could probably write a whole piece on the reasons why she has fallen.  I suspect her supporters overlapped with Bernie (policy), Pete (college educated white voters) and Amy (women) and, since those 3 surged, the votes had to come from somewhere.  I will keep Warren at number one on my ranking until she officially drops out, but I suspect it’s gonna happen sooner rather than later.
  2. Amy Klobuchar – Staying steady.  I’ve said from very early on that, all things considered, I prefer a woman at the top of the ticket.  I suspect Amy is still more of a VP prospect than someone who gets the top spot.  Still, she’s in the middle of a surge and represents a good counter point to Bernie’s revolution.  Nevada is going to tell the tale for the moderate lane.  I think she’s in good shape now to make it to Super Tuesday.  Then, let’s see.  If she doesn’t get the nomination, it’s looking tough for her to get on the ticket.  She and Pete don’t get along.  Biden is toast.  If Bloomberg somehow wins, she might be a good fit for his ticket.  She’s not a fit for Bernie.  And those seem to be the options at this point.
  3. Pete Buttigieg – up 1 spot.  He shared the win in Iowa and came close in New Hampshire.  He’s been competitive in Trump areas, so he has a good theory of the case for how he is going to appeal to independents.  I like the youth and I think he can generate some enthusiasm.  Pick the right VP and that’s a strong ticket.
  4. Bernie Sanders –  up six spots.  Bernie is the frontrunner.  He can generate enthusiasm.  There are polls that show him beating Trump.  He’s got just terrible, horrible, no good, very bad supporters online.  Not all of them, but there are some terrible folks out there.  I like many of his ideas.  The reason he’s down here is because of his supporters.  And his age and the socialist label.  I still say the Trumpies have laid off him because he’s their preferred opponent.  They will go after the socialist thing and I’m afraid it’s going to stick.  Still, with a good VP pick, he can rally the base.  Maybe some of the terrible people online would vote for Trump or sit out if not for Bernie?  So, not my first choice, but I’m gonna vote for him if he’s the nominee.
  5. Joe Biden – down two spots.  He’s toast.  Maybe he stays in til South Carolina, but he’s kind of in the same boat as Warren.
  6. Michael Bloomberg – staying steady.  I’m not a fan of the billionaire buying the nomination thing.  Once he’s on the debate stage and some of his Republican policies come to light, I don’t think he can win.  Still, I’ll vote for him over Trump.  And he’s on here in this spot, because there are no other viable candidates after him.
  7. Tom Steyer – staying steady. Another billionaire.  Maybe better than Bloomberg, but not viable.
  8. Michelle Obama – staying steady.  Just because.
  9. Stacey Abrams – staying steady.  Because she’s a great option for VP.
  10. MadDog, Esq.  I’m up for election locally.  Besides the top 6 or so here, I’m as likely to write myself in and vote for anyone else.

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