Who’s Gonna be the Democratic Vice-President?

It’s not so easy to make a power ranking for a post like this because we don’t know who the nominee will be.  But in a week where polling is starting to show clearly who the front runners are and who has no chance to take the top spot, I thought it might be fun to do a top 5 for the Democratic candidates who have a chance.  I consider Biden and Warren to be the clear frontrunners.  Sanders is a notch below them.  Then the only other names I can see in the top spot are Buttigieg and Harris.

A couple of thoughts on the VP before I do this.  The top 3 candidates for the top spot have something in common.  None of them are gunning for or likely to get the VP slot.  Neither Biden nor Bernie are going to be considered for or accept that position.  I could see Warren taking the VP job for Biden if there was a contested convention, as a unity ticket.  Otherwise, she’ll go back to be a Senator if she doesn’t get the nomination.

I also think that we’ve got a 75% or more likelihood that the ticket will include both a man and a woman.  I haven’t decided if I think it’s more likely that two women run against the Republican nominee or two men.  But my power rankings recognize this and you’ll see that I’m betting on the split gender ticket.

Finally, in this inaugural power ranking, I’m only including one name that isn’t previously or currently running for President – Stacey Abrams.  I think she’s a good option for the men.  Would she take the job?  I don’t know, but she’s in here.

So, with that, here’s my power ranking of the potential VPs for the Democratic nominee.  I’ll go in order of my preference for the presidential nominee, but the VP ranking is who I think will be selected, regardless of my preference.

ELIZABETH WARREN:

  1. Cory Booker
  2. Pete Buttigieg
  3. Julian Castro
  4. Beto O’Rourke
  5. Kamala Harris

If Senator Warren wants to bring the all female ticket, Harris is the obvious choice.  Otherwise, I think she’ll choose a younger male who can balance her ticket.  I go with Booker over Buttigieg in the number one spot because she’s going to need some help with the African-American community.  I don’t see her picking someone from the moderate lane here.

JOE BIDEN:

  1. Kamala Harris
  2. Stacey Abrams
  3. Cory Booker
  4. Amy Klobuchar
  5. Steve Bullock

I think Biden is the most likely nominee to break my gender split idea.  But if the candidates can get over some hard feelings from the debates, Harris is the obvious choice.

BERNIE SANDERS:

  1. Kamala Harris
  2. Stacey Abrams
  3. Amy Klobuchar
  4. Cory Booker
  5. Pete Buttigieg

I really think the nominee is one of the two above.  If there’s a surprise coming, it’s not likely Bernie is the one to overtake the top two.  If he ends up with the nomination, though, Bernie will have to go with a younger woman, hence Harris or Abrams.

KAMALA HARRIS:

  1. Pete Buttigieg
  2. Beto O’Rourke
  3. Tim Ryan
  4. Michael Bennet
  5. Amy Klobuchar

Harris still checks all of the boxes, so, even though she’s not polling well, she could be a dark horse for the nomination.  She will almost definitely choose a man.  I prefer Booker over everybody but I suspect they’ll feel they have to balance the ticket with regard to race.  Mayor Pete or Beto are my top two for now.

PETE BUTTIGIEG:

  1. Kamala Harris
  2. Amy Klobuchar
  3. Kirsten Gillibrand
  4. Stacey Abrams
  5. Cory Booker

Mayor Pete is a wildcard for getting the nomination and he’s also a candidate I could see going in a lot of different directions for the VP pick.

 

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